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First I confirm it's real, not an instrumentation break — check whether the tracking or a pipeline changed. Then I segment: by platform, geo, new vs returning, and time-of-day, to localize where the drop concentrates. I look for a coincident release or campaign change at that boundary. I form one hypothesis, validate it against a holdout or a prior period, then quantify the impact before recommending a fix. The discipline is: rule out measurement first, then segment to localize, then test one cause.